Garden-variety jobless recovery growth

27 Oct 2011 by Jim Fickett.

The BEA released its first estimate of GDP growth (and related numbers) through Q3 today. GDP, GDI, and private demand are complicated, and it is easy to get lost, not only in the short-term fluctuations, but also in the components of growth and how each might be faring. It is important, though, not to lose sight of the big trend, which is continued slow, rocky growth:

To get a quantitative idea of the larger trend, the table below compares the growth of real GDP, GDI, and private demand over two periods, that between the last two recessions, and that since the most recent recession. All numbers are annualized growth rates, in percent.

Any differences are probably not statistically significant, especially given that the most recent estimates may be heavily revised. The take home lesson is that growth since the recession ended is much the same as it was in the last jobless, heavily stimulated recovery.