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Job growth continues worrying long-term trend [ClearOnMoney]
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Job growth continues worrying long-term trend

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Commentary

Job growth continues worrying long-term trend

4 Nov 2011 by Jim Fickett.

It continues to look as if job growth may stall out at something near the neutral rate of 1%. This can be seen both in the year-over-year change

and in the job level, relative to the most recent peak:

The leading indicators of initial claims and temporary jobs also support the same message:

If this plays out the way these indicators are suggesting, we could be looking forward to an unemployment rate in the range of 9-10% for a long time.

Incidentally, the NFP revisions this month provide a good lesson in being cautious about preliminary data. Remember when the August jobs report came out with a zero monthly increase in jobs, and the reporters and markets went crazy? Well the latest revision for August shows a perfectly normal (for this recovery) increase of 104 thousand.