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Most important posts from October

5 Nov 2011 by Jim Fickett.

We may finally be getting near the end of fairytale thinking on gas:

Although slow growth in the US is disconcerting, and the chances of a recession are real (especially in case the situation in Europe worsens significantly), the chances are also good that we are merely seeing a typical jobless recovery:

Most people fail to understand very basic things about financial data. One of those basic things is that historical data gets revised, and prediction methods based only on revised data are much less reliable than claimed.

No one knows when world oil production will peak. A worrying indication, suggesting the time may not be that far off, is that (1) in the past the big production gains almost always came from discoveries of new fields rather than from improved technology being applied to old fields, and (2) the new discoveries these days are much smaller than in the past.

Panic over sovereign defaults will probably drive gold higher, but there is no margin of safety in gold. On the other hand, the current price of platinum is near production cost. It would be going too far to say there is a real margin of safety in platinum but, among the precious metals, platinum is the least dangerous.

Anyone who writes about a successful investor, or is him/herself successful, tends to urge others to adopt the same methods. But different people have different talents, and probably one of the most important things each investor must do is discover the style that works for him/her.