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Jobs -- some real improvement, but the bigger picture is not much changed [ClearOnMoney]
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Jobs -- some real improvement, but the bigger picture is not much changed

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Commentary

Jobs -- some real improvement, but the bigger picture is not much changed

9 Mar 2012 by Jim Fickett.

The best overview continues to be the following one, in which the progression of worsening recoveries in the last four recessions is shown:

It is certainly a good thing that the year-over-year change in the number of jobs is now up to 1.6%, considerably above the neutral rate of population growth (about 1.0%). But even 1.6% is low compared to most other recoveries and, at that rate, it would take several years to get a full recovery of the pre-recession employment rate.

Note, incidentally, that the year-over-year change in the number of jobs typically begins to fall well before the onset of recessions, while current that rate of change is still rising.

Leading indicators still suggest that the rate of job growth is unlikely to pick up strongly:

All in all, the last few months have been encouraging, with the rate of job growth picking up somewhat, yet the larger picture of a very long, sluggish recovery is not much changed.