Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_safefnrecode::register(Doku_Event_Handler &$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/safefnrecode/action.php on line 14

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_blog::register(&$contr) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/blog/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_blockquote::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/blockquote/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_include::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/include/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_popularity::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/popularity/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_redirect::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/redirect/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_captcha::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/captcha/action.php on line 0

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
US employment -- current downtick no big deal, but medium term still looks bad [ClearOnMoney]
Top

Site

About
Contact

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Sitemap

Profile

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Trace:
US employment -- current downtick no big deal, but medium term still looks bad

Reference

Main
Updates
Schedule

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Commentary

US employment -- current downtick no big deal, but medium term still looks bad

1 Jun 2012 by Jim Fickett.

Many economic headlines today worry about short-term variations in the employment numbers, but this is not where the real story is. The real story is that the recovery continues, but may never really improve, that is, we may have seen the best momentum that this miserable recovery has to offer. Still, worries about immediate recession – at least based on these data – remain out of place.

The unemployment rate ticked up from 8.1% to 8.2% and initial claims have risen lately. It is true, as usual, that this could be the start of a change in trend. But there is no evidence for that yet in the data – the minor zigs and zags are easily within the noise range, and the overall unemployment picture could well be still improving overall:

Similarly for the overall number of jobs, as measured by non-farm payrolls. Recently the (notoriously noisy) month-to-month changes have looked pretty anemic, but looking at the larger trend, it is clear this could be a short-term blip:

The big worry remains that the year-over-year change in the number of jobs might be topping out. It is still too soon to call the top, but it is looking increasing likely that we have seen the best this recovery has to offer.

The leading indicators do continue to suggest, at best, no improvement:

Nevertheless, note that in the third from last graph, the point at which the job growth rate peaks is normally in the middle of the expansion, so that even the pessimistic view on jobs does not imply an immediate recession.