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The next slowdown is the one to watch out for [ClearOnMoney]
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The next slowdown is the one to watch out for

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Commentary

The next slowdown is the one to watch out for

3 Aug 2012 by Jim Fickett.

The employment report today suggests that the current recovery is intact. However it is looking increasingly as if the rate of job growth peaked, at barely above the neutral rate, in February, and has more or less stagnated since.

If the slowdown this spring halted the rise in job growth, the next one is likely to drag the country into recession. The leading indicators still point to stagnation for now.

The unemployment rate is probably still in a downward trend, despite the recent small rise. However if job growth drops below the neutral rate, unemployment will rise from an already high level.

(See the Reference page US employment for background, additional data, all the usual graphs, and selected past commentary.)