Commentary
US GDI data for Q2 shows continued slow growth
29 Aug 2012 by Jim Fickett.
Today the BEA released revised GDP and initial GDI data for Q2. GDI is a better indicator of the business cycle than GDP. The data show continued slow growth:
There is no sign of recession, or even of a pre-recession stall. Recall (On the value and limitations of the "stall speed" concept) that quarter-to-quarter growth of GDI less than 1%, or year-over-year growth of less than 2% is a sign that a stall may be happening, and would be an indication that one should take a closer look at a broader range of data. Neither of these thresholds was broken – QTQ growth was 1.6% and YOY growth was 2.1%.
