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Q2 GDP growth in Brazil -- up a bit but still low [ClearOnMoney]
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Q2 GDP growth in Brazil -- up a bit but still low

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Commentary

Q2 GDP growth in Brazil -- up a bit but still low

2 Sep 2012 by Jim Fickett.

Brazil is one of the more interesting investing destinations in the world. There are some serious problems – Lula grew the public sector too much; the country has high costs, including unrealistic pension promises and poor infrastructure; households increased debt too much, too fast; and the slowdown in China is hitting exports (Brazil -- unsustainable spending, still-high inflation).

However Brazil also has excellent natural resources, is a leader in agriculture at a time when it is going to get harder to feed the world, and is good at taking advantage of technology. So it is good to monitor the economic health of Brazil on an ongoing basis.

Brazil over-reached a bit following the financial crisis, and the GDP growth rate has been in decline since the end of 2009. In the latest quarter, reported Friday, there was a bit of a pop up:

Despite the improvement, it is hard to tell whether growth is bouncing back or is still in the doldrums. The compound quarterly growth rate since 1997 has been 0.7%, while growth to the latest quarter was 0.4%. I suspect we will see rather rocky growth for a while. Dilma Rousseff, the current president, seems more intent on monetary stimulus that deep problem solving; the slowdown in China is looking fairly serious; and, although the government keeps making special tax breaks to get consumers to spend, households already have a serious debt service issue.

(For sources see the new Reference page Brazil GDP.)