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Jobs report suggests this recovery never will gather momentum [ClearOnMoney]
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Jobs report suggests this recovery never will gather momentum

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Commentary

Jobs report suggests this recovery never will gather momentum

8 Sep 2012 by Jim Fickett.

By far the most important point in the jobs report we got on Friday is that the overall rate of jobs growth is truly miserable and not getting better. First, three years into the recovery, jobs growth has never been more than just barely above the rate of population growth. This has never happened before, in the whole history of the series. Second, the growth rate seems to have peaked, so the recovery looks unlikely, at this point, to ever gather any real momentum.

There is one other point worth making – since almost everyone is convinced that the US manufacturing sector is falling apart, reporters succumbed to confirmation bias and reported that the employment news in manufacturing was very bad. For example, from Bloomberg,

The biggest decline in factory jobs in two years reported today by the U.S. Labor Department adds to signs that manufacturing is bearing the brunt of the slowdown in global growth.

Factory payrolls declined by 15,000 workers last month, according to the figures issued today in Washington.

It is true that the month-to-month decline was large, and might possibly mean something. But the month-to-month numbers are notoriously unreliable, and the year-to-year growth still looks just fine.

So there is really no evidence yet that anything more than a case of nerves is affecting US manufacturing. It certainly would not surprise if a real decline was taking hold, but the evidence is just not there yet.

All the other usual graphs can be found via the main Reference page US employment.