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Conflicting signs in global trade [ClearOnMoney]
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Conflicting signs in global trade

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Commentary

Conflicting signs in global trade

24 Sep 2012 by Jim Fickett.

On Friday the National Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in the Netherlands released their index for the global trade in goods, with data through July. The last two months have seen a significant drop, but the overall upward trend is certainly not yet broken:

The above data are by volume. But while volumes have risen, real prices have dropped, and global trade measured by value has been more or less stagnant for the last 18 months or so (see Latest global trade data at Early Warning).

This is in accord with the JPMorgan global PMI, which in August was a little below 50 for manufacturing and a little above for manufacturing and services combined, roughly indicating stagnant global GDP.

The Global All-Industry Output Index – produced by JPMorgan and Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 51.1 in August, down from 51.7 in July. …

Manufacturing production declined for the third straight month and at the fastest pace for over three years.

All in all, the global economy is manifestly in a soft patch, but the data do not yet indicate a global recession.