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Revised US GDI comes somewhat closer to a stall prediction [ClearOnMoney]
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Revised US GDI comes somewhat closer to a stall prediction

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Commentary

Revised US GDI comes somewhat closer to a stall prediction

27 Sep 2012 by Jim Fickett.

Today the BEA released its third estimate of US GDP for the second quarter, and its second estimate of GDI. GDI looks somewhat worse than in the previous release, with quarter-to-quarter growth in real GDI only 0.04%, and year-over-year growth of 2.02%. The QTQ value is well below the stall-speed threshold and the YOY value is right on the threshold (On the value and limitations of the "stall speed" concept).

This does not indicate a recession, nor even necessarily a pre-recession stall, because the GDI data has to be looked at in connection with other indicators. These are:

  • The quarter to quarter change in unemployment – this improved rather than worsening (US unemployment)
  • The yield curve – no information due to Fed distortions
  • Housing starts – these improved rather than worsening (see Calculated Risk)

So Nalewaik's stall speed concept does not apply for the second quarter. Nevertheless, the fact that GDI is showing something like a stall, combined with other somewhat weak indicators (industrial production and, especially, the topping out of growth in non-farm payrolls), does suggest that the US economy might be getting closer to a stall.