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Credit impulse news is generally positive [ClearOnMoney]
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Credit impulse news is generally positive

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Commentary

Credit impulse news is generally positive

2 Oct 2012 by Jim Fickett.

Today Michael Biggs of Deutsche Bank sent out a “Global credit impulse update” (no link). Here are the main points from the summary:

Global GDP growth slowed to 1.9% qoq annualised in Q2 2012, which is its slowest pace since early 2009. Our new global credit impulse indicator rebounded in Q2, however, which suggests that the global recovery could regain traction. …

… the euro area could be at a turning point. Part of the decline in credit growth was due to the stress tests introduced in July 2011 and, if the bulk of the balance sheet adjustment has been done, the pace of deleveraging in the euro area could slow. The positive credit impulse could cause a rebound in spending and an upside surprise to euro area real GDP growth. …

In the US, the credit impulse was positive in Q2, and bank lending surveys and financial conditions indices suggest it will remain positive in H2 2012. At a sectoral level, however, the make-up of the US credit impulse has changed. The impulse is neutral for business spending, but positive and likely to remain so for residential investment.

And for the record, here are more specific predictions regarding Europe.

If we are correct in [our views on Europe], the PMI should start rising in Q4.

We do not mean to underestimate the macroeconomic challenges faced by the euro area at present. In September the euro area PMI fell to its lowest level since June 2009, and recent fiscal moves in Spain and France are unlikely to have improved the growth outlook. Fiscal austerity is set to continue, sentiment is poor, and the support from global growth appears to be waning.

In our view, however, these negatives are largely expected. For those who focus on credit growth rather than the credit impulse, the outlook for euro area demand growth is looking bleak for some time to come. If credit growth were to stabilise as we anticipate, however, the rebound in the credit impulse could drive an upside surprise to spending and consequently to euro area GDP growth, which in turn would improve the fiscal outlook. In our view the signals of such a rebound might be evident first in the peripheral countries such as Italy.