Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_safefnrecode::register(Doku_Event_Handler &$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/safefnrecode/action.php on line 14

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_blog::register(&$contr) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/blog/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_blockquote::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/blockquote/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_include::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/include/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_popularity::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/popularity/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_redirect::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/redirect/action.php on line 0

Warning: Declaration of action_plugin_captcha::register(&$controller) should be compatible with DokuWiki_Action_Plugin::register($controller) in /home/public/dw/lib/plugins/captcha/action.php on line 0

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
US industrial production has been roughly flat for almost a year [ClearOnMoney]
Top

Site

About
Contact

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Sitemap

Profile

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Trace:
US industrial production has been roughly flat for almost a year

Reference

Main
Updates
Schedule

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656

Warning: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead in /home/public/dw/inc/auth.php on line 656
Commentary

US industrial production has been roughly flat for almost a year

14 Dec 2012 by Jim Fickett.

Year-over-year growth remains consistent with recovery. However a plateau like the one we are seeing now has often preceded recession in the past.

Today the Federal Reserve reported industrial production figures through November.

Although the latest monthly change was a healthy bump up, it is worrisome that since January the trend has been roughly flat. If you look over the history of the series, a plateau often precedes a recession.

For anyone that would like to look in more detail at the data, here are the last 12 months (seasonally adjusted):

2011-12	95.939
2012-01	96.5925
2012-02	97.0514
2012-03	96.4705
2012-04	97.2721
2012-05	97.2586
2012-06	97.2798
2012-07	97.9216
2012-08	96.9554
2012-09	97.1454
2012-10	96.4932
2012-11	97.509

The year-over-year change is still fairly near the long-term average, and probably most consistent with recovery. However if the flat trend continues another month, and the year-over-year change drops to zero or below, that would suggest the beginning of a recession.

Industrial production is, of course, just one indicator. Here is the ADS index of current conditions, which combines several types of data:

This strongly suggests that we have recovered from the recent dip which caused ECRI and others to call a recession. Even so, I think it is entirely possible that we are just on the edge of recession now. The next few updates of GDI will be very interesting.