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Annual growth in US industrial production is subpar, but not a serious worry [ClearOnMoney]
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Annual growth in US industrial production is subpar, but not a serious worry

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Commentary

Annual growth in US industrial production is subpar, but not a serious worry

15 Mar 2013 by Jim Fickett.

Today the Federal Reserve reported industrial production through February. While there was essentially no growth for several months, recent growth has made up for some of the stagnation:

To get past the month-to-month noise, it is best to look at the annual growth rate. Annual growth is somewhat lower than the long-term average (which is shown by the dashed line below), but is still in a normal range:

What all this means is that industrial production, which is often a very good indicator of the business cycle, is indicating slow growth, not a stall.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti index of current conditions reflects this, and now looks considerably better than it did a few weeks ago:

I remain much less optimistic than current market commentary – in my view we have slowly deteriorating slow growth (No change in US employment situation trend), rather than signs of improving recovery, but there is no sign of an impending recession yet.