Catching up on investment posts

20 Mar 2013 by Jim Fickett. (Minor edit 21 Mar 2013.)

Today there is a new investment post. Access requires free registration.

Also today I have opened a number of old investment posts to public access. Here is a short rundown:

• On 8 Aug 2012 I evaluated Loews, which is often recommended as a conservative value play (Little evidence for Loews as a value play). In my view past good performance at Loews has been strongly dependent on falling interest rates boosting the value of the bond portfolio in an insurance subsidiary, and I see little evidence that the good returns will continue.
• On 26 Sep 2012 I made a start at evaluating Daimler, the parent company for Mercedes-Benz cars and trucks (Daimler -- solid long-term cash flow). My main motivation is that I would like to have some investments in countries where the population is more careful of inflation than in the US. The first-pass analysis suggests that Daimler is a solid, mature, boring company with healthy cash flow. I may or may not invest, depending on further analysis and possibly a lower price at some point in the ongoing euro zone crisis.
• On 9 Oct 2012 I added to my position in PELAX, the Pimco Emerging Local (currency) Bond fund (Added to PELAX position). This is for both dollar-inflation protection and current income. I am almost up to my target allocation, waiting to see if there is another panic run into dollars, caused by Europe, to complete my position.
• On 9 Oct 2012 I took an initial position in Best Buy (Best Buy is very likely undervalued), and on 31 Oct 2012 I added to it (Best Buy got even cheaper last week). The articles in the popular press portraying the end of Best Buy at the hands of Amazon were a classic example of silly misinformation amplified by ignorant journalists and bloggers. Best Buy has maintained its market share and is correcting its mistakes. The stock is up very substantially from where I bought, and today's investment post is about whether to hold or sell.
• On 16 Oct 2012 I took a position in an ETF covering the French stock market (iShares MSCI France, EWQ; Buying into the future of French companies). Unlike US stocks, which are overvalued, many European stocks are undervalued, due to the recession there. The Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E indicated French stocks were, on average, quite undervalued. Since I bought the price is up almost 8%; however it could very well go down again as the euro crisis ebbs and flows – this is a very long-term investment.
• On 24 Jul 2012 I took a position in Peabody Energy, a coal company, because the bad news on coal was greatly overdone (Taking a small position in Peabody Energy). On 22 Oct 2012 I sold the position, with a profit of 41%. (Taking a short-term profit on hard-to-value Peabody Energy).
• On 28 Dec 2012 I updated my analysis of Encana, the natural gas company (Encana checkup). It has been a long wait, but Encana is still deeply undervalued, and I continue to hold.