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Brazil: continued slow growth with moderately high inflation [ClearOnMoney]
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Brazil: continued slow growth with moderately high inflation

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Commentary

Brazil: continued slow growth with moderately high inflation

29 May 2013 by Jim Fickett.

Today Q1 GDP data came out for Brazil. Year-over-year growth, inflation-adjusted, stands at a rather modest 1.8%.

Although some still expect growth to rebound quickly, I think this is optimistic. Much of the rapid growth of a few years back came from (1) an unsustainable spurt of demand from China for commodities, and (2) an unsustainable growth rate of consumer credit. Both of these might well be seeing a more-than-temporary slowdown (See for example China stagnant and Household credit may be a limiting factor for the Brazilian economy). Regarding consumer credit and spending, the Financial Times notes,

Most concerning, perhaps, is that the Brazilian consumer, the principle driver of Brazil’s economy, is becoming more cautious. Household expenditure was flat in the first quarter compared with the previous three months and supermarkets, restaurants and other businesses slowed down in April and May

Inflation in Brazil seems to be oscillating around a value of about 6% (although it is really higher because there are some price controls making the numbers look better than they are – Brazil's inflation rate is not entirely trustworthy).

(See the Reference pages Brazil GDP and Brazil inflation for background and sources.)