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US GDI indicates continued slow growth [ClearOnMoney]
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US GDI indicates continued slow growth

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Commentary

US GDI indicates continued slow growth

30 May 2013 by Jim Fickett.

Today the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released a first estimate of GDI for Q1. I follow GDI rather than GDP, even though it comes out one or two quarters later, because GDI is a better indicator of the business cycle than GDP. Year-over-year growth (Q1 2012 to Q1 2013) stands at 2.2% and quarter-to-quarter growth at 0.6% (2.4% annualized). All this is lackluster but not alarming. In other words, as usual since the last recession ended, we have slow growth but no evidence of an impending recession.

From the graph one can see that all the headlines over the last 3 years about scary slowdowns or increasingly robust growth have been somewhat exaggerated. In fact the variations have been relatively small and, on a larger scale, growth has been relatively steady.