Top
Commentary

Differences

This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.

Link to this comparison view

investment:commentary:2015:05:08-shorting_treasuries_looks_attractive [2015/05/09 04:23]
jim created
investment:commentary:2015:05:08-shorting_treasuries_looks_attractive [2015/05/09 04:27] (current)
jim
Line 19: Line 19:
 So inflation is likely to rise, and yields are likely to rise above inflation. So inflation is likely to rise, and yields are likely to rise above inflation.
  
-If one could just buy and hold yield, rather than shorting treasuries, there would be no question.  Yield is too low, and treasuries too expensive.  But of course rea-life shorting requires good timing.+If one could just buy and hold yield, rather than shorting treasuries, there would be no question.  Yield is too low, and treasuries too expensive.  But of course real-life shorting requires good timing.
  
 You might get the idea from Buffett's statement that he is making a statement about timing, saying that whereas before it was too early to short treasuries, now is the time.  In fact, if you listen to the quote in context, it is clear that he is making no such statement.  He is very clear about the timing risk, saying in particular that Europe may need to hold rates low for longer and, if they do so, it will be difficult for the Fed to raise US rates very much. You might get the idea from Buffett's statement that he is making a statement about timing, saying that whereas before it was too early to short treasuries, now is the time.  In fact, if you listen to the quote in context, it is clear that he is making no such statement.  He is very clear about the timing risk, saying in particular that Europe may need to hold rates low for longer and, if they do so, it will be difficult for the Fed to raise US rates very much.