Brazil GDP

12 Aug 2014.

In a rapid recovery following the financial crisis, Brazil's GDP growth rate popped up to very high and unsustainable levels, and has declined to much lower levels since. The compound annual growth rate since 1997 has been about 2.9%, with the latest year showing growth of 1.9%.

12 Aug 2014. Data through 2014 Q1.

The National Accounts are kept by IBGE (“Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística”). The web site has a number of high level pages in English, but is mostly in Portuguese when one gets down to any level of detail.

• Starting page for methodology on the National Accounts.
• For GDP as a volume series, with 1995 = 100:
• Start with the Portuguese page for the quarterly national accounts, as the English page is often not updated right away
• On the resulting page, in the left column, choose “Tabelas”
• Choose the sixth table, “Série Encadeada do Índíce Trimestral com Ajuste Sazonal”
• The relevant column is “PIB” (Produto Interno Bruto = GDP)
• The release calendar
• In a related vein, the main page for industrial production is http://www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda/tabela/listabl.asp?z=t&o=22&i=P&c=2295. In the first menu choose the second option (SA); second menu first option (general index); third menu choose all available months. Then at the bottom choose “Gravar”; give the file a name under “Arquivo” and click “OK”. The CSV download, despite the “CSV” has a separator of semicolon, not comma.

Selected commentary:

• 8 Mar 2012. Brazil has been decelerating since the end of 2009
• 2 Sep 2012. Q2 GDP growth in Brazil -- up a bit but still low
• 30 Nov 2012. Brazilian growth may have bottomed, but remains modest
• 4 Mar 2013. Low growth and high inflation in Brazil
• 29 May 2013. Brazil: continued slow growth with moderately high inflation

Undated; accessed 1 Sep 2012. IBGE.

“System of Quarterly National Accounts (reference 2000)

Quarterly National Accounts

Presents the current values and the quarterly volume indexes (1995=100) for the Gross Domestic Product at market prices, excise tax, value added at basic prices, personal consumption, government consumption, gross fixed capital formation, stock change, exports and imports of goods and services. Two series of index numbers are calculated: based on the previous year and linked with reference to 2000 (1995 = 100). The linked series is adjusted seasonally by X12-ARIMA making it possible to calculate the change rates in relation to the immediately previous quarter.

In IBGE, the survey was started in 1988 and restructured since 1998, when its current results were integrated to the System of National Accounts, of annual periodicity.

In 2007, continuing with the compatibility of the annual system, the Quarterly National Accounts were also reformulated, changing to reference 2000.

The annual weights are obtained through this new system of accounts.”