ClearOnMoney

Government debt in Brazil is growing rapidly

jim — 2013-06-18T03:39:15+00:00

18 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. General government gross debt in Brazil is nearing 70% of GDP and is growing rapidly. This is relevant to the general topic of emerging market debt. While I do not think there are likely to be big near-term problems in Brazil, I also think there are reasons to be concerned about the value of its currency in the long term.

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jim — 2013-06-18T03:38:54+00:00

Reference update schedule

jim — 2013-06-18T03:38:53+00:00

The following is the master schedule for regular updates of the reference section. Approx. date next update Topic Trigger event 16 May 2013 Historical prices of precious metals BLS monthly CPI report 30 May 2013 State and local budgets NIPA update 6 Jun 2013 US credit impulse Flow of Funds release 25 Jun 2013 World trade NBEPA releases monthly report 28 Jun 2013 US natural gas supply EIA releases monthly data 28 Jun 2013 Japan industrial production METI release Jun 2013 Na…

Brazil government debt

jim — 2013-06-18T03:38:51+00:00

This page is about general government (i.e. including state and local) gross debt (all debt owed by the treasury at each level). The main question is whether the country's finances are sustainable in the longer term. Summary 17 Jun 2013. Brazil's government debt level is not too high by modern developed nation standards, but is nevertheless substantial, standing at about 68% of GDP, and is growing rapidly. Lula greatly increased unfunded liabilities (in, for example, pensions), so the debt …

New investment post

jim — 2013-06-17T19:37:42+00:00

17 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. There is a new Investment post up about emerging market bonds. Access requires free registration.

US industrial production growth lowest since recession

jim — 2013-06-15T00:01:11+00:00

14 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. The annual growth rate of US industrial production, as of May, was 1.5%. That is an ambiguous reading -- there have been many times at the onset of recession when the index was around that level, but there have also been many times during periods of recovery when it was around that level. What is perhaps most concerning is that the general trend in the growth rate since early 2010 has been down, and the current reading sets a new low for the current recovery. Unli…

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jim — 2013-06-15T00:00:31+00:00

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jim — 2013-06-15T00:00:30+00:00

US index of industrial production

jim — 2013-06-15T00:00:29+00:00

This page is about the US Index of Industrial Production, a measure of total industrial output. The main question is where we are in the business cycle. Summary 14 Jun 2013. The Index of Industrial Production fell sharply during the recession, with a 19% drop from the peak in Aug 2007 to the trough in May 2009. Since then it has recovered substantially, but it is still below the previous peak. As of May, the annual growth rate was significantly below its long-term average, providing a some…

Gene patents

jim — 2013-06-14T03:24:34+00:00

13 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. The US Supreme Court made a ruling today on gene patents which might affect investments in biotechs. Most newspaper reporters really did not understand the ruling (see Nature for a decent report), so I thought I'd try to summarize concisely.

Possible opportunity in EM bonds

jim — 2013-06-13T04:56:25+00:00

12 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. I own the PIMCO emerging market local currency bond fund, PELAX. This is a long term holding, intended primarily as some diversification out of dollars (see Purchasing two PIMCO bond funds and Added to PELAX position). The price of PELAX is down 11% recently, hit by a combination of three things. First, the dollar is near a two-year high against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, which hurts bonds denominated in local currencies. Second, interest rates have b…

China industrial production growth low, inflation moderate

jim — 2013-06-12T01:25:54+00:00

11 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. Year-over-year growth in China's industrial production is officially reported as 9.2%, which is very high on any absolute scale. However it is low in the range of the last few years. Further, realistically, reported growth in the neighborhood of 9% probably corresponds to actual growth of something close to zero, since both the government and private sector PMI numbers indicate essentially no growth (China PMI indicates stagnation).

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jim — 2013-06-12T01:25:22+00:00

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jim — 2013-06-12T01:25:21+00:00

China inflation

jim — 2013-06-12T01:25:18+00:00

Summary 11 Jun 2013. The inflation rate in China is moderate, running at 2.1% as of May. Graphs 11 Jun 2013. Data through May 2013. The following shows both the main, all-items, Consumer Price Index, and the sub-index for food. The common wisdom that food drives the main index is consistent with the close parallel between the two lines.

China industrial production

jim — 2013-06-12T01:25:16+00:00

Summary 11 Jun 2013. As of May, year-over-year growth in industrial production was reported at 9.2%. If the figure is accurate, it shows growth that is quite low for recent history in China, but still impossibly high for a sustainable trend. There are doubts about its accuracy, when compared with PMI and electricity use.

US jobs growth still slightly above neutral rate

jim — 2013-06-07T19:25:49+00:00

7 Jun 2013 by Jim Fickett. The single most important statistic in the US employment report is the annual growth rate in the number of jobs. This needs to exceed 1%, the rate of population growth, just to indicate improvement, and needs to exceed 1% by a wide margin if we are to recover pre-recession conditions. The number is also fairly stable, changing slowly over time and changing little in revisions, unlike the monthly change that is the focus of the news, and so provides real information.

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jim — 2013-06-07T19:25:08+00:00

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jim — 2013-06-07T19:25:08+00:00

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jim — 2013-06-07T19:25:07+00:00