http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/ 2013-05-18T15:34:42+00:00 http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/ http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/lib/tpl/jim/images/favicon.ico text/html 2013-05-18T01:12:53+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:17-additional_exports_of_us_natural_gas_approved 17 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. There are a number of US natural gas liquefaction and export facilities planned and awaiting approval (North American LNG exports will make a significant difference in a few years). Today the Freeport, Texas project was approved. That is in addition to one other facility already approved, at Sabine Pass, LA. text/html 2013-05-16T21:37:10+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:16-japan_gdp_--_up_from_last_quarter_but_just_even_with_a_year_ago 16 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Today the Cabinet Office in Japan released its first estimate for real GDP in Q1. The one-quarter change was better than expected, causing some to celebrate the positive effects of Abenomics. However the quarterly changes are very noisy, and it would be surprising to see the new policies having any large effect so soon. The year-over-year change is a better indicator of the trend, and this shows no detectable growth at all. text/html 2013-05-15T21:59:37+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:15-eu_recession_mild_overall_but_relentless 15 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Today Eurostat gave a first estimate for GDP in Q1. There are two main things to notice about the trend. First, this recession is showing a much milder drop, overall, than the great recession. Second, it has now gone on for six quarters, and shows no sign yet of easing. text/html 2013-05-15T19:28:37+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:15-us_industrial_production_remains_in_a_normal_growth_trend 15 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. The latest month-to-month change in US industrial production was a decrease, which resulted in some negative headlines. But ignoring the tiny, noisy, monthly changes, the trend is still one of fairly normal growth, only slightly below the longer-term average. text/html 2013-05-14T22:24:17+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:14-quote_of_the_day 14 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. From the Financial Times, on Japanese Government Bond Yields, which have risen strongly of late: More seriously, ... So far the rise is still in the range that could easily be attributed to random noise, and does not strongly indicate a new trend. But it is something to watch closely. text/html 2013-05-13T20:44:08+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:13-china_stagnant 13 May 2013 by Jim Fickett The latest industrial production figures from China show 9.3% growth from April 2012 to April 2013: Now, unlike the BBC ("Manufacturing, a key driver of China's economic growth in recent years, has slowed down"), I do know the difference between a change in the level of production and a change in its growth rate. The official statistic graphed above is the growth rate, and so the government is saying that industrial production is still growing at a breakneck pace,… text/html 2013-05-11T06:05:43+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:10-good_overview_on_budget_problems_for_us_states_especially_medicaid 11 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Last July a “State Budget Crisis Task Force”, co-chaired by Paul Volcker and Richard Ravitch, put together a 112-page overview of long-term problems for state budgets. There have been many overviews of issues in retirement benefit funding, including mine (State retirement funds), but this is the first time I've seen a clear, concise, and insightful overview of all the important issues, in one place. text/html 2013-05-10T20:05:39+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:10-kafka_in_america 10 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Today Bernanke, who has lead most of the world into the greatest monetary experiment of all time, warned against excessive risk-taking in financial markets. According to the Financial Times: ... It's certainly a good thing that Bernanke is vigilant, though it might be more comforting if he had not completely missed the subprime crisis. text/html 2013-05-10T05:55:22+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:09-japan_manufacturing_remains_far_below_the_pre-crisis_high 10 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. The larger trend in Japan's index of manufacturing production, through March, was one of stagnation -- production seems to be varying around a mean perhaps 20% below the high reached in early 2008: (See the Reference page Japan GDP for sources, background, and past commentary.) text/html 2013-05-09T22:00:56+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:09-orwell_in_japan 9 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. The April quarterly newsletter from the Ministry of Finance in Japan says, in truly Orwellian fashion, that “The Bank [of Japan] will continue with the quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent”. Not an inflation target, mind you. So what exactly is 2% stability? text/html 2013-05-08T21:44:01+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:08-dash_for_trash 8 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. One of these days the credit markets will turn; the most likely trigger will be either (1) success in Japan's new program to create inflation, causing a loss of interest in Japanese Government Bonds or (2) defaults in the US corporate junk bond market. text/html 2013-05-07T22:13:32+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:07-household_organic_income_continues_to_show_weak_recovery 7 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Last week the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported household income and spending through March. The month-to-month changes are very noisy and it is a waste of time to analyze them. The trend does not hold any great surprises. While the compound annual growth rate in organic income (that is, income less government transfers) since 1990 has been about 2.2%, the latest year-over-year growth rate is a much weaker 1.3%. This is, then, yet another piece of evidence t… text/html 2013-05-07T20:02:13+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:07-defensive_dividend_stocks_are_as_a_class_overvalued 7 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Last week there was an interesting article by Jonathan Davis, editor of the Independent Investor, in the Financial Times. In it, he points out that the stocks of large, solid, dividend-paying companies have performed very well in the last few years but, though they may very will continue to go up, valuations are now quite high. text/html 2013-05-06T20:52:35+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:06-news_addiction 6 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. The radio show 99% Invisible points to a talk by Natasha Schüll on slot machines, in which she describes how the gaming industry engineers the whole slots experience in a way that ends up feeding gambling addiction. One of the more revealing statements by Schüll, an anthropologist, is that addicts view hitting the jackpot as an annoying distraction. text/html 2013-05-06T19:40:06+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:06-us_banks_easing_credit_conditions_at_boomtime_rates 6 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. According to the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices released today banks are easing credit conditions in all categories. What is particularly interesting about this report is that the rate of easing is comparable to the great credit boom of a decade ago. Although the recovery is fragile, and a recession could change all markets very quickly, the credit boom suggests, for now, continued increases in the prices of stocks, ho… text/html 2013-05-05T00:26:28+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:04-berkshire_hathaway_still_has_a_conservative_price_book_value 4 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. In 2011 there was an air of pessimism around Berkshire Hathaway, mostly for silly reasons, and the price was depressed. I bought on 28 Feb 2011, when the A-shares were priced at $131,300 (Buying Berkshire Hathaway as a better-than-index-fund), and again on 5 Aug 2011, when the A-shares were priced at $107,300 (Increased stake in Berkshire Hathaway). In both cases I bought B-shares, but statistics in the news are usually quoted in terms of A-shares, and everything is… text/html 2013-05-03T21:21:46+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:03-no_evidence_of_real_improvement_in_the_us_employment_situation 3 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Most of the employment situation headlines today were fairly upbeat, based on the monthly change in the number of jobs (technically, non-farm payrolls). The monthly increase was 165,000, well above the number of new jobs needed to keep pace with population growth. However this number is so imprecise as to be nearly meaningless. Remember how last month there was much wailing over the monthly increase of 88,000? That number was revised up to 138,000 in this release,… text/html 2013-05-03T05:09:56+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:02-us_house_prices_in_narrow_range_since_2009 2 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. As many have remarked, the US housing market has experienced a bit of a boom in the last year and a half, and prices have risen substantially. The Case-Shiller 20-city index, seasonally adjusted, is up 9% from its recent low in Jan 2012. The monthly price movements continue to track inventory, measured in months' worth of sales, quite closely and, with inventory relatively tight, the latest month-to-month increase was about 1.2%: text/html 2013-05-02T20:26:46+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:02-china_s_manufacturing_is_approximately_stagnant 2 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. Both of the Purchasing Manager Indices for China were barely above the neutral value of 50 in April -- 50.6 for the government index and 50.4 for that from HSBC. Although some news articles will reassure you that at least the values were above 50, it is clear from the amount of noise in the series that we can not be at all sure even that there was growth rather than shrinkage last month. This reinforces the general impression that China's economy is failing to respo… text/html 2013-05-01T20:41:18+00:00 jim http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2013:05:01-us_natural_gas_in_storage_is_below_the_historical_average 1 May 2013 by Jim Fickett. When the inventory of natural gas is properly measured, in months of supply, one sees that there is actually a small deficit, rather than excess, compared to the historical average. (This is the twelve-month moving average of natural gas in underground storage, divided by the twelve-month moving average of consumption, to give a seasonally-smoothed months-of-supply measure. See the Reference page US natural gas supply for background, sources, and past commentary.)