http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/ 2012-05-19T09:07:50+00:00 http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/ http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/lib/images/favicon.ico text/html 2012-05-18T17:40:53+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:17-worth_keeping_an_eye_on_gannett_s_transition 18 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Gannett, a news conglomerate best known as the publisher of USA Today, has a fairly steady, long-term free cash flow of about $900 million per year -- about a 29% yield at current market cap. While their newspaper revenue is in decline, their on-line revenue and income is ramping up quickly. There is certainly a risk, in all news companies, that they will fail to adapt to an internet world but, if Gannett continues to make the transition, the current price might co… text/html 2012-05-18T06:20:08+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:17-japan_gdp_in_q1_roughly_unchanged_from_a_year_and_a_half_ago 17 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Today Japan's Cabinet Office released its first estimate of Q1 GDP. On the one hand, it is positive that Q1 GDP was 1% greater than that in Q4 of last year. On the other hand, it was only 0.5% greater than the level in Q3 of 2010. So it is really not clear whether the economy is growing or not. text/html 2012-05-17T21:31:59+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:17-amusing_quote 17 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. David Einhorn, at the Ira Sohn conference, characterizes Japan's demographic problem: text/html 2012-05-16T22:47:05+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:16-on_course_for_a_banking_crisis_in_greece 16 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. The Financial Times reports: ... ... ... If this is not turned around within days, there is likely to be a panic and bank failures. The problem is not necessarily the banks per se, but rather that people (rightly) expect a big devaluation in a return to the drachma. So the easy solution, more lending to the banks, will not work. Core Europe is going to have to decide to throw more good rescue money after bad, or Greece is going to have to decide to play by… text/html 2012-05-16T22:35:46+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:16-uptrend_in_us_industrial_production_remains_intact 16 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Current growth in US industrial production remains in a normal, healthy range. Today the Federal Reserve released industrial production figures through April. Trend growth has been fairly consistent for almost three years now. text/html 2012-05-16T22:06:33+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:16-us_inflation_remains_moderate:administrative_note 16 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Both headline and core inflation came in at 2.3% for April. Inflation remains a longer-term worry. (Data are from the BLS, in a release yesterday. For sources and background see the Reference page US CPI.) Administrative note Eventually inflation will become an exciting story -- too exciting, in fact -- but for now one does not really need to check in every month. In order to have more time for individual security analysis, I will move US inflation, along wi… text/html 2012-05-15T17:44:11+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:15-european_output_flat 15 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Today Eurostat provided its first estimate of GDP for Q1. From Q4, euro zone GDP was up 0.02%, and EU GDP was down 0.05%. In other words, flat, as far as we can tell at present. Once the data are revised in coming quarters, probably we will see either a continuation of the contraction seen in Q4 or the beginnings of recovery, but it is impossible to know which, with this first estimate. text/html 2012-05-15T01:40:04+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:14-an_alternative_view_of_deceleration_in_china 14 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. In my posts on the Chinese economy (e.g. China moderating) I normally take official statistics at face value, even though they are well known to be somewhere between slightly and drastically unreliable. It is hard to do anything else. Nevertheless, once in a while one must pay attention to other indicators that might (stress might) give a more accurate view. text/html 2012-05-15T01:29:00+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:14-the_big_question_in_europe_remains_the_fate_of_spain 14 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. You have probably seen the headlines about the people of Greece rejecting, in the latest elections, the austerity imposed by core Europe. Confidence that Greece will stay in the euro zone is slipping. The biggest consequence of this situation is not a possible Greek exit, which is survivable in and of itself, or even a further exit by Portugal, but rather a possible loss of confidence in the fate of Spain or Italy. The Financial Times reports: text/html 2012-05-14T20:28:58+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:14-eu_industrial_production_continues_downtrend 14 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Eurostat reported industrial production figures through March today. The downtrend continues (and it is hard to see what is going to turn it around): (Data and graph courtesy of Eurostat.) text/html 2012-05-13T00:59:11+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:12-china_moderating 12 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. On Friday the National Bureau of Statistics in China reported a number of statistics. Year-over-year growth in industrial production slowed to 9.3%: On the one hand, this is down to levels last seen in 2009, and so there was much hand-wringing in the press about a “slowdown”. On the other hand, growth rates that have come to be seen as normal for China are arithmetically impossible to continue. Even at an annual growth rate of 9.3%, production would double ever… text/html 2012-05-12T23:12:39+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:12-new_investment_post 12 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. I sold some bonds this week. There is a new Investment post -- free registration is required for access. text/html 2012-05-10T16:53:16+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:09-japan_may_be_moving_towards_monetization_of_debt 10 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Last month the Japanese Ministry of Finance published its quarterly newsletter, with most data updated through Q1. There was no change in projected debt levels through 2013, nor in current, very low interest rates. The most interesting change was in the pattern of ownership of Japanese Government Bonds. Many observers have predicted that with an aging population, households and pension funds would be net sellers of JGBs and, indeed, households, pension funds, and … text/html 2012-05-09T22:44:46+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:08-the_gold-dollar_exchange_rate_suggests_gold_is_fairly_valued 9 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. If you deflate the price of gold and silver by the increase in the number of dollars, instead of by the consumer price index, gold and silver prices are neither high nor low right now. For a long time I've had mixed feelings about gold. On the one hand, with an ongoing debt crisis in Europe, coming debt disasters in Japan and the US, and negative real rates seemingly a permanent fixture in many countries, it is hard to see the gold price coming under much downward p… text/html 2012-05-09T00:37:32+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:08-slow_growth_in_household_income:administrative_note 8 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. Real, organic household income is up a sluggish 1.6% year-over-year. The US remains in recovery mode but this shows, especially against the backdrop of decelerating job growth, the fragility of the recovery. Last week the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on household income and spending. text/html 2012-05-04T19:10:48+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:04-job_growth_may_be_flatlining_at_a_low_level 4 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. It seems very likely that, just as in the last jobless recovery, job growth never will catch up with population growth. Note the progressively weaker recoveries in the last four recessions: As I've been predicting for some time, it looks very much as if the year-over-year change in the number of jobs is leveling out at a lower level than in past recoveries: text/html 2012-05-04T18:57:44+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:04-us_unemployment_situation_continues_to_improve 4 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. All in all, unemployment is still a serious problem, but is slowly getting better. The unemployment rate is still in a downtrend (though also still very high in absolute terms): There was a small increase in the number of those working part time while desiring full time work, however the trend is probably still one of improvement: text/html 2012-05-04T02:05:52+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:03-us_natural_gas_in_storage_has_risen_from_low_to_near_average 3 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. By tracking the amount of gas in storage, one can see that supply and demand are very close to being in balance. It is true that this balance is achieved via a price that is below cost, but the common perception that the amount of gas in storage demonstrates a huge glut is simply wrong. text/html 2012-05-03T21:35:22+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:03-japan_unemployment_stable 3 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. For the last six months, the unemployment rate has been in the range of 4.4 - 4.6%. Japan faces many challenges, but this is not among the big ones. text/html 2012-05-03T20:25:56+00:00 Jim Fickett http://www.clearonmoney.com/dw/doku.php?id=investment:commentary:2012:05:03-euro_zone_unemployment_continues_to_rise 3 May 2012 by Jim Fickett. It's not clear just how long this will be allowed to continue: (Data and graph courtesy of Eurostat.)